Türkiye–Poland Economic Relations 2026: From $12.5 Billion to $15 Billion

TURKPOL Flagship Analysis · October 2026

1. Key Takeaways

• Record trade. Türkiye–Poland goods trade reached $12.5 billion in 2025, up 5.7% on 2024 and almost double the 2020 level ($6.5 billion). The earlier $10 billion target was passed in 2023.
• More balanced. Polish exports to Türkiye are growing faster than Turkish exports to Poland (+8.2% vs +3.5% in 2025). Türkiye's surplus has shrunk from $1.1 billion (2022) to $0.45 billion (2025).
• Automotive is the backbone. Vehicles and parts make up about 31% of total trade in both directions. Both countries are part of the same European car supply chain.
• Investment lags behind trade. Direct investment in each direction is still below $200 million, though more than 2,000 Turkish-capital companies operate in Poland. Turkish contractors have delivered 72 projects worth about $10.1 billion in Poland.
• $15 billion is reachable by 2027–2028. That needs around 8–11% annual growth, compared with 5.7% in 2025. Growth will have to come from new sectors (defence, energy, infrastructure, food, IT), not only from cars.
• Strategic momentum. The leaders set the $15 billion target in March 2025, a security cooperation agreement followed in December 2025, and a bilateral investment and business forum is planned in Türkiye for autumn 2026.

2. At a Glance

3. Context: Why This Relationship Matters Now

Poland and Türkiye are two of the largest and fastest-growing industrial economies on the EU's eastern and south-eastern edges. Poland has about 37 million people and Türkiye about 85 million. Both are NATO members, both are export-driven manufacturing hubs, and they are linked through the EU–Türkiye Customs Union, which removes tariffs on industrial goods.

Three developments since 2022 have raised the relationship's importance:

1. Near-shoring. European manufacturers have moved supply chains closer to home, and both countries have gained.
2. Security. Russia's war against Ukraine has put Poland and Türkiye at the centre of NATO's eastern and Black Sea flanks.
3. Infrastructure and energy. Poland's large investment programmes in rail, roads, energy and the new airport are open to Turkish contractors and energy companies.

The political framework is now in place: a strategic partnership since 2009, a $15 billion trade target set by President Erdoğan and Prime Minister Tusk in March 2025, and a security cooperation agreement signed in Ankara in December 2025.

4. Trade Trends 2016–2025

Trade has grown every year since 2020. It almost doubled from $6.5 billion to $12.5 billion, an average of 14% per year.

Source: TÜİK data published by TİM (Aug 2026). Full series in data/trade_2016_2025.csv.